鲁政委关于“两房”观点引起美国精英杂志《大西洋月刊》专文讨论

鲁政委 原创自 新浪博客 | 2011-02-11 14:12 | 收藏 | 投票

China Begins to Worry About Fannie and Freddie Bonds

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/02/china-begins-to-worry-about-fannie-and-freddie-bonds/71058/

 

Feb 10 2011, 11:18 AM ET   By Daniel Indiviglio Comment

 

In a House Financial Services committee hearing yesterday, some witnesses recommended that the U.S. force future losses from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's mortgage portfolio on bondholders, instead of taxpayers. One clear political problem with this proposal, however, is China. They hold about a half trillion dollars of this debt, so the Chinese might not be pleased if the U.S. forces them to take losses after assuring them that they would back up the mortgage companies' commitments. According to Dow Jones Newswires, senior China's Industrial Bank economist Lu Zhengwei has issued a warning about this political risk:

 

The Obama administration has committed unlimited amounts of aid to ensure that the firms meet their obligations to holders of their debt, as well as investors in asset-backed securities issued by the two companies. The commitment has cost U.S. taxpayers $134 billion so far.

 

Nonetheless, Lu said in his note that this commitment amounts to an "empty check" without the support of the U.S. Congress.

 

"However, looking at the current political situation in the U.S., for the U.S. congress to give a clear guarantee on this issue is almost impossible," Lu said.

 

China's complaints could endanger any proposal to force losses to bondholders. If the nation threatened to dump, or even stop purchasing, U.S. Treasury securities, then the U.S. would likely think twice about whether to try to push Fannie and Freddie's mortgage losses to investors.

 

Read the full article at Dow Jones Newswires.

 

以下是关于美国《大西洋月刊》(The Atlantic)的介绍:

185711月,第一期《大西洋月刊》出版,称自己为“一本有关文学、政治、科学与艺术的杂志”。它在创刊宣言中这样写道:“在政治领域,《大西洋》将坚持无党派、无偏见原则,但不管如何,人们都将确信它是美国理想的代言人。

今天的《大西洋月刊》已经成为美国最受尊敬的杂志。它的发行量达到了47万份,每期有120万人在阅读。是“美国国家杂志奖”无法错漏的名字。而伴随着《大西洋月刊》的成长,美国文化与美国理想不但已经觉醒、甚至要成为一种霸权。

(转自:http://baike.baidu.com/view/575700.htm

 

 

以下是道琼斯对本报告的相关报道:

 

 

FEBRUARY 10, 2011, 7:12 A.M. ET Chinese Economist Warns Of Risks In Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae Bonds

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110210-707625.html

 

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--A popular Chinese economist on Thursday said China should be aware of risks in its holdings of debt issued by U.S. government-controlled mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), and suggested that China sell the securities soon.

 

The report by Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at China's Industrial Bank Co., doesn't represent the views of China's leadership, but it does highlight persistent concerns about the security of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities among Chinese civilians and some influential thinkers.

 

Lu's warning comes just ahead of a report from the Obama administration, which could come as ...

 

这是英文原文的开头部分,全文需要在有账号的情况才可阅读,以下是中文全文:

 

 

中国经济学家建议卖出房利美和房地美债券

 

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20110210/MKT007625.asp

 

中国兴业银行股份有限公司(Industrial Bank Co., 简称:兴业银行)的高级经济学家鲁政委周四表示,对于持有美国抵押贷款服务巨头联邦国民抵押贷款协会(Fannie Mae, 简称:房利美)和联邦住房贷款抵押公司(Freddie Mac, 简称:房地美)所发行的债券,中国应该意识到其中蕴含的风险。他建议尽快卖出这些证券。

 

虽然鲁政委的这篇报告并不代表中国政府的观点,但却充分说明中国民众以及一些有影响力的学者始终对房利美和房地美证券的安全性心存担忧。

 

就在鲁政委发出上述警告之后,美国政府可能最早在周五发布一份报告,阐述政府逐渐淡出这两家公司的可选方案,从而减少政府对美国抵押贷款行业的介入。

 

鲁政委称,尽管这些证券不太可能出现违约,但美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)定量宽松措施的结束则可能导致这些证券的价格下跌。他建议赶在美国的定量宽松措施于6月份结束前出售房利美和房地美的债券。

 

鲁政委在报告中估计,中资机构目前持有这两家公司约5,000亿美元的债券。他在接受道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)的电话采访时表示,他是根据中国媒体的相关报导作出上述估计的,因为中国政府从未证实过所持“两房”债券的规模。

 

 

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


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