路透社记者对胡鞍钢教授关于气候变化问题的采访

管清友 原创 | 2008-10-08 12:17 | 收藏 | 投票

China Government Adviser Urges Greenhouse Gas Cuts

BEIJING - China should bind itself to international goals to slash greenhouse gas pollution, one of the nation's most prominent policy advisers said, in a striking break with Beijing's official stance.

Hu Angang, a public policy professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, warned failure to act could doom global climate change talks.

In submissions to leaders and a recent essay, Hu has argued China could emerge an economic and diplomatic winner if it vows to cut gases from industry, farms and transport that are trapping increasingly dangerous levels of solar heat in the atmosphere.

"It's in China's own interest to accept greenhouse gas emissions goals, not just in the international interest," Hu told Reuters in an interview on Sunday.

"China is a developing country, but it's a very special one, with the biggest population, high energy use and sooner or later, if not now, the biggest total greenhouse gas emissions. So this is a common battlefront we must join."

Hu's arguments are likely to stoke debate about China's stance in accelerating negotiations to forge a global climate pact to build on the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

China has insisted that, as a developing country with relatively low average greenhouse gas output per person, it must grow first and not accept any caps until wealthier. Rich nations that caused most emissions must lead and help more, it says.

But many experts and Western politicians say Beijing must accept measurable limits so other big polluters will also commit.

Hu acknowledged that backing caps was a minority view in China. But the professor, who has helped shape environmental and social policy, said his stance would gain support as the damage from global warming and benefits of binding cuts become clearer.

"I've always started out in the minority but ended up as the mainstream," he said.


CONTRIBUTOR OR VICTIM?

In the scheme recently proposed by Hu in the Chinese-language Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies, China's greenhouse gas pollution would continue rising until around 2020.

The country would then "dramatically" curtail emissions, cutting them by 2030 to the level they were in 1990 and then half that by 2050. China's greenhouse gas emissions amounted to 3.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 1994.

Hu's plan is ambitious for this fast-growing nation of 1.3 billion people. China's emissions of carbon dioxide have raced past the United States', reaching 6.2 billion tonnes in 2006, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency has estimated.

But China should commit to cuts in a global pact, even if the United States resists, Hu said. Washington refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, under which China and other poorer nations need not accept emissions limits.

"Like joining the WTO, this should be used as international pressure to spur our own transformation," he added, referring to the World Trade Organisation, which China joined in 2001.

"If China makes a 1 percent error in handling climate change, that could mean 100 percent failure in making agreement."

Bold reductions will need infusions of pollution-reducing technology from advanced economies. But by accepting them, China would win diplomatically and economically by rising as "green" power and a massive market for energy innovation, Hu said.

An economist often quoted in official media, Hu said he submitted his climate proposals to President Hu Jintao, no relative, earlier this year.

China and other poor countries with many farmers would suffer most from rising sea levels, worsening droughts and erratic rainfall triggered by global warming, said Hu Angang.

"Unless we become one of the biggest green contributors, we will be one of the biggest victims of global warming," he said. (Editing by Nick Macfie and Alex Richardson)

Story by Chris Buckley

Story Date: 9/9/2008

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSPEK19898020080908

 

独家:中国应承诺减少温室气体排放,促进达成全球气候协议--胡鞍钢
2008年 9月 8日 星期一
记者 储百亮


路透北京9月8日电---清华大学国情研究中心主任、公共管理学院教授胡鞍钢表示,中国应承诺履行减少温室气体污染的国际目标,他的观点与中国官方的一贯立场明显不同.他并警告说,如不采取行动,全球气候变化谈判恐将破裂.


在提交给领导人的建议和最近发表的论文中,胡鞍钢认为,如中国承诺减少工业、农业和交通行业的温室气体排放,可成为经济和外交方面的赢家.


胡鞍钢周日接受路透时告诉记者,"接受温室气体排放目标,不仅符合国际利益,也符合中国自身利益.中国是一个发展中国家,但情况特殊,中国人口最多,是能源消费大国,迟早会成为最大的温室气体排放国.因此这是我们必须参与的领域."


胡鞍钢的观点或将引发对中国在全球气候谈判中所持立场的争论.


中国政府一直坚持认为,作为一个发展中国家,中国人均温室气体排放量相对较低,且当前首要任务是经济发展,在更为富裕前不会接受任何定量的减排上限.中国并称,富国应承担更多减排责任.


但不少专家和西方政客认为,中国必须接受可控的排放上限,其他污染排放大国才会跟着承担更多的责任.


胡鞍钢承认,目前国内只有少数人支持接受温室气体排放上限,但随着全球温室效应危害加剧,及限制排放获益的显现,将有更多的人支持他的观点.


"我一开始总属于少数派,相信我的观点最终会成为主流,"他说.

 

**争当减排的贡献者**

胡鞍钢在当代亚太期刊建议称,2020年以前,中国的温室气体污染将持续增加.之後,国家将严格控制排放,在2030年之前将之减少到1990年的水平,到2050年再减少一半.中国1994年二氧化碳排放量达到37亿吨.


对一个人口达13亿、经济高速增长的国家而言,胡鞍钢的计划相当激进.根据荷兰环境监测局(Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)的估算,中国在2006年的二氧化碳排放量已超美国,达到62亿吨.


胡鞍钢称,中国应在某个全球协议的框架下,承诺降低温室气体排放,即便美国反对这样做.美国拒绝批准京都议定书,在该议定书框架下,中国和其他更为贫穷的国家不需要接受温室气体排放上限.


"与加入世贸组织类似,这应该被视为一种国际压力,来促进我们自身的改变."他补充说,"即便中国在处理气候变化的过程中只犯了1%的错误,在达成协议方面也将意味着100%的失败."


大量减排温室气体需要由发达国家来提供先进技术.但胡鞍钢表示,中国将在接受这些技术的过程中,在外交和经济方面成为赢家,即发展成为一个"绿色"能源大国和巨大的创新能源市场.


胡鞍钢并称,由于全球变暖而引起海平面提高、乾旱日益严重和降雨渐趋异常,将会对中国及其他贫穷的农业国家造成最为严重的损害.


"除非我们变成一个绿色大国,否则将沦为全球变暖的最大的受害者之一,"他说.(完)


--翻译 石冠兰/郑及游/李然; 审校 张荻

德国之声中文网 

中国短讯 | 09.09.2008 | 10:00 UTC

清华大学教授称中国应重视环境问题

 

据路透社报道,清华大学国情研究中心主任胡鞍钢在接受采访时表示,作为一个正在腾飞的经济大国,中国应承诺履行减少温室气体污染的国际目标,他的观点与中国官方的一贯立场明显不同。胡鞍钢并警告说,如不采取行动,全球气候变化谈判恐将破裂。7月份的G8峰会上,中国就已经表示,不承诺在2050年之前将二氧化碳排量减半。据估计,中国在2006年的二氧化碳排放量已超美国,达到62亿吨。

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3629394,00.html

 

http://greenleapforward.com/2008/09/09/voices-that-carry-advocating-for-carbon-caps-in-china/
Voices That Carry–Advocating for Carbon Caps in China
Sep 9th, 2008 by Julian

An influential voice from within calls for hard carbon emission targets.

A prominent policy academic has urged China to bind itself to carbon emission reductions.  The substance of the academic’s message is not new–that as a (the?) world’s leading emitter of greenhouse gases, China should take active steps to curb emissions.  What is new is that the messenger is coming from within, in a break from the official stance of Beijing, whose national climate policy focuses on reducing emissions intensity, i.e. emissions per unit of GDP, rather than reducing absolite emissions.

Tsinghua University public policy professor Hu AnGang (pictured right) argues that China stands much to gain, both economically and diplomatically, in imposing absolute emissions targets, even if the likes of the US continue to hold out in the global climate negotiations, reports Reuters.  Indeed, we’ve already examined how China is beginning to cash-in on the low carbon game.  In a climate plan proposed by Hu, China’s GHG emissions would continue to rise until 2020, as China climbs up the Kutznets curve, then enter a period of dramatic emissions reductions to 1990-levels by 2030, and then half that by 2050.

Sometimes, the messenger is as or even more important than the message.  A quick background check reveals Hu to be a highly influential policy adviser to the central government.  According to his biography on Tsinghua’s School of Public Policy & Management’s webpage:


Dr. Hu has important influence to China’s public policy making, as one of the most well-known policy advisers and Chinese economists to push China’s reform and development. Earlier in 1990s, he propounded many important suggestions that had been adopted by the central government, for example, establishing tax share distribution system between central and local government (1993), reducing the disparities of regional development (1994), prohibiting the army of engaging in commerce (1994), creating jobs as most priority goal of economic development(1997), balance between social development and economic development (2000),new conception of development based on people-centred (2000,2004).

I’ve argued before (in an interview with Social Bridges)  that in order to win the battle of ideas, we need “visionaries who can be champions of the sustainability cause. It is these people, who either by themselves or through innovative organizations at which they work, who are going to spread the green message globally.”  Many voices are calling for change, but some voices are heard louder than others, and when it comes to policy making in China, we expect that voices from within, especially amongst those who have the ears of the central government like Hu, are probably the best heard.

Despite China’s hitherto unwavering adherence to the concept of common but differentiated responsibilities (i.e that developing countries such as China should not be bound by hard targets and that developed countries, who are historically responsibile for the largest emissions cumulatively over time, should lead the way), Hu argues:

It’s in China’s own interest to accept greenhouse gas emissions goals, not just in the international interest…Like joining the WTO [World Trade Organization, in 2001], this should be used as international pressure to spur our own transformation…If China makes a 1 percent error in handling climate change, that could mean 100 percent failure in making [an international] agreement [on climate change].

When it was pointed out how radical it was to advocate binding caps on emissions given the history of the international climate negotiations, Hu responded philosophically, in reference to his own experience in policy advocacy on various issues over the years:

I’ve always started out in the minority but ended up as the mainstream.

Indeed, Hu’s clarion call to Beijing’s policy makers reverberates across the pacific where a different visionary, renown journalist and leading globalization commentator Thomas Friedman (in his new book Hot, Flat and Crowded) has also called upon his fellow Americans to turn the challenge of fighting climate change into an opportunity to generate new wealth.  The US and China, after all, should have a lot in common when it comes to energy security issues.  Both are economic powerhouses that are heavily reliant on foreign sources of oil (70% of US’s and 50% of China’s oil consumption is met by foreing sources of oil), and use coal as a predominant source of electricity generation (50% for the US and 70% for China).  These observations make cooperation on energy issues between both countries is a sensible and urgent foreign policy agenda.

They also make voices of “visionaries” like Hu and Friedman a little louder, and little clearer.

 

 

胡鞍钢:中国必须承担更多减排温室气体责任

2008年 10月 7日 星期二 18:39 BJT  保存为书签 | 打印 | 阅读全文[-] 文字大小 [+]  

1 / 1看大图路透北京10月7日电(记者 Chris Buckley)---中国知名学者、清华大学公共管理学院教授胡鞍钢表示,随着经济向前发展,中国和其他发展中国家必须担负起减排温室气体的责任。此观点与中国政府的立场大相径庭。

 

 

胡鞍钢在接受路透社记者采访时表示,明年底在哥本哈根举行的全球气候谈判可能是地球避免更多风暴、乾旱和洪水等极端天气所带来灾难性後果的最後机会。

 

 

他认为,就算发达国家拖了减排计划的後腿,中国也应该采取行动,因为中国地理环境特殊,极易受到乾旱、海平面上升等气候变化现象的影响。

 

 

他在路透全球环境峰会上表示:“不要以为中国即使不采取行动、不承担责任,也能够避免灾难。”

 

 

中国政府坚称,中国是发展中国家,平均每人排放的温室气体量相对较低,中国必须等经济发展起来以後才开始接受排放上限。中国政府还认为,如今导致环境恶化的温室气体大部分是由发达国家在工业发展过程中排放的。

 

 

 

“不是一般意义上的发展中国家”

 

胡鞍钢则为中国提出了一个截然不同的策略。“中国不是一般意义上的发展中国家,而是不断向前发展的一个国家,” 他说,“一旦中国成为排放温室气体最多的国家,它就必须担负起减排责任……中国必须承担应有的责任,即使当今领导人并不认同这一点。”

 

 

在提案中,他根据联合国开发计划署的人类发展指数将各国划分为四个梯队,从而确定各个国家的减排义务。

 

 

他称中国正在从第二梯队上升为第一梯队。随着位次上升,中国和其他国家应该肩负起更为严格的减排任务。

 

 

“如果中国不积极合作,……不仅中国,而且全世界都将面临灾难,”胡鞍钢说,“现在已经太晚了,但是要是再晚一些,我们就真的无力回天了。”(完)

个人简介
民生证券研究院副院长、宏观研究中心总经理、首席宏观研究员。曾任清华大学国情研究中心项目主任; E-mail:gqingyou@sina.com
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