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海部俊树:中国经济流动性过剩已经明显海部俊树:中国经济流动性过剩已经明显海部俊树:中国经济流动性过剩已经明显 - 财富资讯 - [布波·创业网络]->网址:http://www.cxo8.com/ne
 10月底的一个下午,日本东京永田町的一个写字楼里,前首相海部俊树接受了本报记者的专访。在海部狭窄的办公室里,透过窗户往外看,众议员会馆近在咫尺,而国会议事堂尽在眼帘。

  从1989年8月9日当选为日本首相,到1991年10结束首相生涯,海部俊树经历了日本泡沫经济的最高峰,以及股市和地产开始崩盘的最初阶段。而这个当政812天的首相也成为日本在上世纪90年代当政时间最长的首相之一。

  虽然卸任多年,但海部俊树依然以自己的方式影响着日本政坛:现任首相福田康夫是他早年在早稻田大学一起求学的好友。就在记者到此拜访的几天前,福田康夫首相还专程来到海部俊树的办公室,向他请教有关中国事宜的建议。

  关于泡沫经济:股价地价暴涨影响国民心态

  广州日报:海部先生担任日本首相期间,日经指数在1989年12月29日那天达到了历史的最高位,有39000点。面对这样的情况,日本内阁以及您本人对日本经济是不是很乐观呢?

  海部俊树:我担任日本首相时,日本经济进入了泡沫经济的最高峰。正如您刚才所说,股价已经到了最高点。就像做一种游戏一样,很多老百姓、那些从没买过股票的人都认为,买股票至少能挣很多零花钱,所以大家都拼命挤入股市。地价一直在攀升,大家都把这个看作是挣钱的手段。虽然我不知道这是为什么,但我当时想到过,出现这种现象,对每个国民的身心状态、精神状态都不是好事情。

  特别是9月份去上海时,我和中国的一位领导人一起吃饭,问过他很多事情,一听,觉得中国经济好像跟当年日本经济一样,一直都在上升着。当年日本和美国的贸易额已经到了最高峰,两年前,中日两国的贸易额超过了当年日本和美国的贸易额,中国也成了日本最大的贸易国,我感到很吃惊。

  我相信,当年日本遇到的问题,中国也会碰到。从整体看,中国经济会越来越发达,这样中国要对世界负起一种重大责任,而现在已经到了这个时候。欧洲央行施加压力,要求中国让人民币升值。

  广州日报:您那个时候有压力吗?

  海部俊树:我记得,当时很多国会议员质问我:“海部首相,你怎么看待地价不断攀升这件事?”他们请我想一想,如果土地价格无限制、任意地上涨,会有什么后果。我当时的理念是,土地不能有赌博式的买卖。我当时就要求,无论地价便宜还是昂贵,只要土地进行买卖,请务必跟政府通报一下。当时政府出台了一项政策,规定未经许可,土地不可随意买卖。在这件事情上,我一直非常努力。现在回想起来,我不知道是否成功,但那时我非常希望把土地价格控制在某种程度,并为此费了很大心血。

  土地的价格不能再涨了,一定要控制在这个价格以下。我是这样想的,也是这么做的。我向国民说明我的观点,向他们解释,希望他们能够理解我。

  广州日报:除了控制地价,您的内阁还出台了什么措施?

  海部俊树:在那个时候,社会上已经有人开始反省,认为流动性过剩已经到了不能不解决的阶段。我督促银行,把利率提高,吸引人们存钱,不要把资金都用在买卖土地和股票上。把流动性过剩收紧或缩小,这是直接影响到上述价格下跌的关键。

  广州日报:当时日本社会各界,包括国会议员对经济走势有不同的意见吗?

  海部俊树:是的。应对泡沫经济,不能一下子就把它的方向完全扭转过来,紧缩同样不能过急过度。但我认为,要跟拜金主义说再见,钱不是万能的,世界上社会上还有很多珍贵的、钱买不到的东西,大家不要忘掉。我一直向大家述说我的这个观点。

  关于泡沫破灭:我个人没有受到直接的影响

  广州日报:泡沫经济破灭之后带来的问题,比如很多人破产、失业?

  海部俊树:是的。泡沫不可能一直往上走,它总有破灭的时候。我认为,泡沫经济破灭之后,对国民来说并不是什么坏事情。在我任首相期间的首脑峰会上,我多次说,既不要泡沫,也不要紧缩,要用最合适最恰当的方式,使国民生活好起来。

  很庆幸的是,当时股价和地价逐渐下降,终于回到当初该走的路上。我认为,这是我当首相以后首先做成功的事情。

  广州日报:那么您个人的生活是否受到影响?

  海部俊树:我没有进过股市,到现在为止,我手上也没有过土地。所以我个人没有受到过直接的影响。当时的舆论说,首相想回到以前精神生活丰富的时代,要实行紧缩,但我又说了,过分的紧缩也不行。

The sea department Jun tree:China economy mobility excess already obvious
10 the end of the months of an afternoon, Japan Tokyo always an office building of the farmland Ting inside, front prime minister the sea department Jun tree accepted this report a reporter of special visiting.At the sea department inside in the narrow office, through the window go toward outside see, the congressman guild be near at very short distance, but the national legislature argument matter hall exert in the eyelid.

From 1989 August win an election for 9 days for Japan prime minister, to 199110 be over prime minister‘s career, the sea department Jun tree experience Japan bubble economy of most high peak, and stock market and real estate beginning meltdown of first stage.But this is a prime minister of government 812 days also become Japan at last century 90‘s be government time most long of one of the prime minister.

Although quit office for several years, the sea department Jun tree still with oneself of way influence Japan political arena:Incumbent prime minister the blessing farmland Kang man is his early years to attend school together in the University of Waseda of good friend.Before the reporter go to this several days that visits, the blessing farmland Kang man prime minister still make a special trip office of arrive at the sea department Jun tree, ask the affair concerning China toward him of suggestion.

Concerning the bubble economy:Stock price ground the price is sudden rise influence citizen‘s mindset

Newspaper in Guangzhou:The sea department Sir hold the post of Japan for prime minister‘s period, Nikkei Index in 1989 December 29 day that day come to a history of the tallest, have 39000:00.Face so of circumstance, cabinet in Japan and you to Japan economy whether very optimism?

The sea department Jun tree:When I held the post of Japan a prime minister, Japan economy got into a bubble economy most high peak.Positive such as you just say, stock price already arrive apogee.Be like to do a kind of game, a lot of common people, those the person who have never once bought a stock all think and buy a stock at least ability Zheng is a lot of zero spend money, so everyone try very hard to crush into stock market.The ground price has been being increase and everyone see this as be the means for earn money.Although I don‘t know this is why, I once thoughted of at that time, appear this kind of phenomenon, to each citizen‘s mind and body appearance, mental state not is good affair.

Especially September go to Shanghai, I with China of 1 leader to have a meal together, once asked him a lot of affair, on listen to feel China economy seem heel that year Japan economy similar, always all at ascension.That year the trade volume of Japan and the United States already arrive most high peak, two year ago, medium day the trade volume of two countries exceed that year Japan and the United States of trade volume, China also become Japan biggest of trade country, I feel very shocked.

I believe the problem that that year Japan meet and China will also run into.From whole see, China economy would be more and more flourishing, so China want to the world negative a kind of graveness responsibility, but now already arrive this time.The European Central Bank bring pressure, request China let renminbi appreciation.

Newspaper in Guangzhou:You does that time have pressure?

The sea department Jun tree:I remember that a lot of parliamentarian query me at that time:"Sea radical mutually, how do you treat a ground of price to continuously increase this matter?"They ask me to consider, if the land price be infinite to make and at will soar, will have what result.My principle at that time BE, the land can‘t have already gambled a type of business.I will beg at that time, regardless the price cheapness be still expensive, as long as the land carry on business and please must with government notification once.At that time government pedestal a policy, the provision haven‘t yet to admit, land can‘t at will business.On this affair, I have been making great effort very much.Now return to think of, I don‘t know whether success, but that time I very hope pair of land price control in a certain degree, and is this fee very big strenuous effort.

The price of land can‘t rose again, must control below this price.I think like this and also do so.I to citizen elucidation my standpoint, to they explanation, hope they can comprehension I.

Newspaper in Guangzhou:In addition to control ground price, what measure did your cabinet return a pedestal?

The sea department Jun tree:At that time, society already someone beginning self-reflection, think mobility excess already arrive have to solve of stage.I speed up bank, pair of interest rate exaltation, attraction people make a deposit, don‘t all use the funds on business land and stock.Accept mobility excess tight or contract, this is direct influence arrive above-mentioned price slump of key.

Newspaper in Guangzhou:At that time Japan society the public, include a parliamentarian to economy the trend have dissimilarity of opinion?

The sea department Jun tree:Yes.Reply a bubble economy, can‘t a while it of the direction be complete to turn round to come over and tighten same can‘t lead nasty excessiveness.But I think, say with money worship that see again, money isn‘t all-powerful, the society still have a lot of precious and priceless thing in the world, and everyone don‘t want to forget.I have been stating my standpoint toward everyone.

As for foam fall through:I was personal and be subjected to direct of influence

Newspaper in Guangzhou:The bubble economy bring after fall through of problem, for example many people bankruptcy, unemployed?

The sea department Jun tree:Yes.Foam‘s ising impossible has been upwards walking, it be total to have fall through of time.I think that after bubble economy fall through isn‘t what bad affair to citizen.At I term mastermind Feng in prime minister‘s period would up, I many times say, since not want a foam, also unimportant Suo, use the quite the cheese and the most fitting way, make citizen life good.

Very what to rejoice BE, stock price and ground price be gradual to descend at that time, finally returning to at the beginning should walk of road up.I think that this is me to be a prime minister later do a successful affair first.

Newspaper in Guangzhou:So your personal of life whether be subjected to influence?

The sea department Jun tree:I didn‘t once entered stock market, up to now, on the my hand also didn‘t lead a land.So my being personal have never been subjected to direct of influence.The public opinion at that time say that the prime minister want to return to the spiritual life in past abundant of ages, practice tighten, but I again say, excessively of tighten also not line.

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李瑞锋    2007-11-15
成功不可靠,有效方可长久。