王博平的双语博客
Financial Centres Think Local
Dubai’s dream of creating a global financial hub needs some local magic

Since dealers first gathered in the fug of London’s coffee houses and under the fabled buttonwood tree in lower Manhattan, the world’s great financial centres have built their capital market and reputations over centuries, one trade at a time. Now along comes an upstart (perched on a tiny patch of Middle Eastern desert, no less) daring to suggest it wants to join them almost overnight. That is the vision of Dubai, a thriving emirate on the edge of the Persian Gulf that aims to create a world-class capital market. Ruled by a wealthy and ambitious family, the al-Maktoums, it makes no secret of its wish to become the main financial centre between Europe and Asia.

Dubai and its rulers are not alone. As emerging market has boomed and capital has become more mobile, a growing number of governments around the world have begun to cultivate a desire to create their own financial centres. Even Khartoum, a few hundred kilometers up the road from war-torn Darfur, is spending its oil bounty on glittering skyscrapers and new technology. Yet it takes more than a dream and government largesse to succeed as a financial hub. Dubai and its imitators need to remember that the market is built not just on subsidies that attract foreigners, but markets that attract locals.


To win a place in the top club of financial centres, Dubai must attract not just providers of capital but users, too. The bankers need companies that want to sell their shares and bonds in the region; fund managers want local companies to invest in; and private-equity partners need a pipeline of enticing ventures and the prospect of listing their companies after a few years. Dubai has sought to profit from the unprecedented mobility of markets, but without local demand for capital, that same mobility will start to count against it.


Two measures might help. The government should use its new capital market to raise money for its own, highly successful enterprises such as Etisalat, its telecoms provider, and Emirates, its airline. It hardly seems a vote of confidence that apart from the occasional sukuk-an Islamic bond-they have tended to stay away. It should also look to promote governance and fair accounting at home and across the region. This is a tall order, but it is important because oil price will not forever guarantee that capital is in such generous supply. The risk is that Middle Eastern companies will discover the merit of turning to the capital markets at precisely the moment when the door starts to close on them. Dubai’s financial centre would do most service to the Middle East as a regional source of cheap capital and a spur to good governance.



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金融中心，着眼本土
迪拜建立全球金融中心的梦想需要施展他们阿拉伯神灯般的魔法

自交易员们首次聚会在伦敦空气闷浊的咖啡屋里和曼哈顿下城具有神话般色彩的悬铃木下以来，世界上伟大的金融中心是经过几个世纪的努力，靠着点滴坚实的积累，才建立起它们的资本市场和国际美誉。
现在一个爆发户（中东沙漠中一个袖珍小国）在一夜间站出来并勇敢的宣布他们要建立世界级的金融中心，这便是迪拜的幻想，一个波斯湾海湾兴旺发达的阿拉伯酋长国，目标着打造一流的资本市场。在富的流油且野心勃勃的奥-马克图姆斯家族的统治下，迪拜丝毫没有掩饰他们希望成为地跨欧亚主要金融中心的野心。


迪拜和它的统治者并不寂寞，伴随着新兴市场的崛起和资本流动性的加强，越来越多的国家政府开始孕育他们自己的金融中心。甚至在离战火连天的达富尔只有几百公里外的喀什穆，也在动用他们的石油收入建立起闪闪发光的摩天大楼和新兴的科学技术。但是，成为一个真正的金融中心，光有梦想和政府的慷慨解囊还远远不够。迪拜和它的效仿者还应牢记，市场不仅仅是靠优惠政策来吸引外商投资，更重要的是着眼本土。


若想在顶级金融中心中占有一席之地，迪拜不能光想着吸引投资者，还要为其寻找出路。银行需要当地企业从而出售他们的股票和债券；
基金经理也需要当地企业为其投资；私募的资本公司同样需要一条风险投资的渠道并期望若干年后所投企业能够上市。迪拜已经从空前的市场流动中获得利润，但并没有为这些资本寻找到合适的本土买家，那这些相同的流动性将会产生负面效应。


两个方案也许可行， 政府应该利用其新兴的资本市场为本土成功的企业如国有电信Etisalat和阿联酋航空公司提供融资贷款。如果伊斯兰债券缺席其中并意图离开，那么它看上去会是一场很艰难的信心投票。其次应当促进政府在本土和周边制定公平的会计制度。这种要求虽然很苛刻，但是十分的重要，应为石油价格将不能永远的保证资本会如此充足的供给。危机就是当中东公司发现资本市场的价值正好转向他们时，大门已经开始准备向他们关闭了。迪拜的金融中心应该为中东地区提供更多的服务，成为区域性廉价金融市场的来源并改进政府的职能。

2008-01-25 15:29
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王博平
金融业工作者。 BA CAU BEIJING, MAJOR: BUSINESS STATISTIC MASTER READING UK MAJOR SECURITY ANALYSIS INTERESTS: ECONOMETRIC、 STATISTIC、INVESTMENT PRODUCTS