网站首页  金融研究  宏观形势  政治政务  经济思想  企业报道  网络经济
   作者管理  投资研究  行业综述  管理智慧  中国策略  法治精神 财经新闻
    股票新闻

   价值中国行业新闻 => [行业新闻]
 


大伟迪博尔德咨询公司 “中国快照”
 
July 2006

Dear Friends,

We are pleased to send along this month's DDA China Snapshot .

We hope you will find it enjoyable and informative. As usual, we have focused on a number of recent developments that provide a lesson or two for those who want to do business or invest here, or already do; open a window on how a particular sector is evolving; reflect a new trend; or otherwise get our attention. We have also tried to include things that may not have been in the news where you are.

China Energy Updates

Speaking of subjects in the world's headlines, nothing beats the confluence of China and Energy. So we also wanted to tell you about the new China Energy Updates that we are producing in association with our partners at SinoFile and Audax Communications. These daily on-line reports provide the most comprehensive, up-to-date information presently available on China 's energy sector, much of it not available outside China from any other source. If you would like a free trial subscription, please contact Jacques Boppe at jacques.boppe@dieboldassoc.cn

New Staff Members

We are also delighted to announce the recent appointment of Christophe King and Jacques Boppe as our newest Associates. Christophe is based in our Beijing office while Jacques joined us in Shanghai .

Christophe has a Bachelor of Mechanical Engineering Degree from Columbia University , where he was Vice President of the Asian American Society of Engineers, and is an MBA candidate at the Schulich School of Business at York University in Toronto , Canada . He is also a graduate of Beijing Language and Culture University here in Beijing . Christophe has worked as a Project Manager at Axcelis Technologies in Rockville , Maryland and as a Mechanical Engineer in the Photo-resist Asher and Etcher Group of Matrix Integrated Systems Inc. in Richmond , California .

Jacques graduated from the Lyc¨|e Francais in Hong Kong where he spent his early years, and also has a Master of Science in Engineering and Automation Degree from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and a Master of Philosophy in Management Studies Degree from the University of Cambridge . His Master's thesis at the Judge Institute of Management Studies was on Foreign Investments in China 's Electricity Generating Sector. Jacques has previously worked at the European Headquarters of Proctor & Gamble, and at OC&C Strategy Consultants in London .

New Advisory Board Member

We are also pleased to announce that Lin Yong Qing, Co-founder and CEO of ChinaValue.net, China 's first and largest business blog, has become the newest member of our International Advisory Board.

Recognized as one of China 's leading entrepreneurs, Alex also worked for many years with Intel, and was associated with Tsinghua TongFang Computer Ltd. He has an MBA from Xiamen University and has studied at the London School of Economics, New York University's Stern School of Business, and in the joint program of Tsinghua University and Harvard Business School .

Alex brings a wealth of experience in China 's dynamic IT, internet and new media sectors.

And, Now, Our Monthly Highlights:

Government/Macroeconomic Policy

Keeping the Exuberance Rational
Recent moves by the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, to tighten credit, and by the State Council, to cool and rebalance China's property market show that the government will not hesitate to take action when it is needed, if the economy gets going too fast or starts heading off in the wrong direction. That China would make these moves when the central banks in the US , Europe and Japan have also been tightening rates tells another story as well, about China 's continuing integration into the global financial system.

While we believe the government will not hesitate to take additional measures to cool the economy if these do not do the job, we would still not expect them to go too far or too fast, for fear of endangering either China 's high rate of growth or the inward flow of foreign investment that supports it. As they say when the lights go off at Washington 's annual Gridiron Club dinner, for the traditional Speech in the Dark: "to singe but not to burn".

The new rules for China 's property market were also notable for requiring a much larger proportion of development land to be set aside for more affordable housing.

Finance/Banking/Insurance

The BOC Floats in Hong Kong with Shanghai Next
Bank of China (BoC) successfully launched its Hong Kong IPO on May 24th raising US$ 9.7 billion, the world's largest IPO since AT&T floated its wireless unit in 2000. The shares offered to individual investors were reported to have been oversubscribed by 80 times.

Shortly after the government's recent lifting of a moratorium on IPO's on China 's domestic exchanges, BoC also announced plans for a further RMB denominated offering in Shanghai as early as July. The plan to raise a further US$ 2.5 billion in A-shares has been well received with 20% already placed with domestic investors. China 's insurance companies have reportedly taken the lion's share, adding to their already large equity holdings from the Hong Kong listing.

China 's Accountants and Lawyers Are Cashing in Too
The bankers are not the only ones cashing in on these record-breaking bank IPO's. The international auditing standards and sophisticated legal engineering required have been good news for China 's accountants and lawyers too.

On the accounting side, both PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and KPMG have won huge auditing contracts for China 's biggest bank listings. Ernst & Young is set to do even better if, as expected, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) goes forward with its US$10-15 billion offering later in the year.

In fact, the surge in activity has placed huge strains on accounting firms' capacity, both big and small. KPMG recently announced plans to double its staff in greater China to 9000 in the next four years. PwC has located its office in Guangzhou next to the eastern rail station so that accountants from its Hong Kong office can commute to cover the shortfall. Smaller firms in Hong Kong complain that staff costs have gone through the roof.

With new accounting rules going into effect in the mainland, and the gearing up of domestic M&A activity around the corner, accounting qualifications have never been so valuable in China . We also see the recent cooling of other, non-bank IPO activity in Hong Kong as temporary, and not affecting this longer term trend.

The story is the same on the legal side. Mainland China 's biggest law firm, King & Wood, recently announced plans to hire 100 more lawyers. Just as more mainland firms are setting up offices and alliances in Hong Kong and beyond, more U.S. , British and Hong Kong firms are moving into the mainland. US and British firms have opened 25 new offices in China in the last two years alone. According to a recent Bloomberg report adapted by the International Herald Tribune, China has about 120,000 lawyers for its 1.3 billion population. That compares to 1.1 million in the United States , with 280 million people. In 1993, just 13 years ago, there were 60 private law firms in China ; today, 30,000. It reminds me of that old story, a town that will not support one lawyer, will always support two.

But on a more serious note, these growing opportunities for lawyers and accountants also reflect some fundamental changes going on, in the ways that China operates.

Non Performing Loans
On the surface, China 's banking system is looking significantly more robust. By the end of last year, 75% of commercial banks were reported to have achieved the statutorily required 8% capital ratio, up from just 0.6% in 2003. While many analysts still question the reported figures and others express new concern over the huge new lending spree in the first quarter of 2006, particularly in sectors at risk from overheating, this has not dampened investor support for the massive bank IPOs in Hong Kong over the last year. At the end of the day, few doubt the Chinese government will or could step back from whatever support of its major banks is still necessary.

Today's single digit rates have only been achieved after massive injections of public funds to buy Non Performing Loans (NPLs) at book value from the country's top lenders. A large share of these are still on the books of the four state-owned asset management companies (AMCs) that were set up to hold and dispose of them - for example 38% of these distressed assets bought by the government in 1999 are still lying unresolved.

Recent government pressure to clear the AMCs' portfolios by the end of this year should bring new opportunities for those smart enough to identify the right packages to invest in, and know how to best optimize the bottom line return. Not an investment for amateurs but for those who get it right, the profits can still be huge.

Entertainment

Football Mania Grips China
With tens of millions of Chinese fans tuning in to watch the World Cup games on TV, and millions more crowding into bars, internet cafes and other public places across the country to see it, football mania grips China .

These are serious fans. They don't just buy the jerseys; they can debate the teams, the players and the plays, and all the other statistics and nuances with the best of them, and they seem to do it all day every day and night. If you can't keep up, you risk being labeled "wei qui mi" - pseudo football fan. There is hardly a corner of any major city that doesn't have a football hanging from somewhere, or a poster of some player or another slogging something. China Mobile paid US$ 13 million for 2 exclusive contracts for TV specials and is offering World Cup highlights over its mobile phones via text and picture messaging. Brewer Tsingtao was reported to have paid US$ 5 million to sponsor CCTV's World Cup features. Chinese football fans traveling to Germany have pumped an estimated US $75 million into the Chinese and German travel industries.

China's TV set manufacturers have seized the opportunity as well and no upwardly mobile Chinese yuppie would dare be caught watching the games on anything other than the latest and biggest flat-screen high-resolution TV he or she could buy. Hong Kong listed Skyworth, one of China's major TV-set makers based in Shenzhen, estimates that it will sell a staggering US$ 250 million worth of TV sets just on the back of the tournament. And all of this together would be only a fraction of the illegal betting going on.

The lessons: China 's younger generation really does reach out and embrace the world. They have more money to spend, and they are spending it. People here have always loved a big show. And it makes us think, this is only a small preview of the national mood when Beijing hosts the Olympics in 2008. Get ready.

Logistics

Building the Future
The world's logistics giants continue their aggressive expansion here. DHL has spent a cumulative US$ 900 million in the greater China region, while UPS now runs more flights into China than any other US airline, passenger or freight.

ProLogis, another of the world's largest logistics providers, recently announced plans to nearly double its distribution capacity in China . They will spend US$ 90 million on 3 million sq. ft. of new properties along China 's booming eastern seaboard. The company already has 4.1 million sq. ft. of operational facilities with a further 2.5 million under construction.

Meanwhile the Ministry of Communications announced that it will develop two new port "clusters" to supplement existing shipping capacity around Shanghai , Tianjin and Shenzhen. The two new development regions will be centered around Xiamen , anticipating increased trade with Taiwan , and western Guangdong province. Planners expect the developments to match the importance of the three existing trade hubs, and will have crude oil as well as container facilities.

The scale of the infrastructure that is being built and planned here every day of the week remains so impressive.

High Tech/Telecommunications

Making it Work in China
We have highlighted in earlier Snapshots the importance to any company doing business in China , of being flexible enough to adapt its strategy and the way it does business in other places, however successfully, to the unique characteristics of the Chinese market. We have cited IKEA and Samsung as two examples of those who have succeeded here by operating as if they were Chinese companies. Well, here are two more recent examples, both also in the same high-tech space as Samsung:

General Electric, the world's second largest company, recently predicted that GE sales in China could reach US$ 6 billion this year, a 20% year-on-year increase and 5 times its revenue in 2001. When you look at how they are doing it, one thing jumped out - a recent agreement between GE and China's powerful National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) under which GE and the NDRC will work together in areas such as wind energy, the development of jet engines that have lower emissions and use less fuel, power-efficient railway locomotives, water desalination and the conversion of coal to gas. GE will also be investing up to $50 million in ecology-related research and development at its Shanghai Technology Center, and provide management and leadership training to 2500 Chinese managers and officials. Given new Chinese government policies to improve the environment and curb pollution, they will be doing their share.

During his visit to Asia last month, Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer said that China was "big enough, different enough that we'll take our global strategies and change them quite a bit to make it work in China ". Mirroring GE, Microsoft recently signed a new agreement with China 's Ministry of Information Industry (MII) to support innovation in China 's IT and software companies and help close the divide between China 's developed and rural areas. Over the next few years, MII and Microsoft will establish and run a series of joint laboratories. The two parties also plan to train 1000 instructors, 20,000 software engineers and another 50,000 IT workers. Microsoft will also be providing training and consultancy to three jointly designated software companies in China to enhance those companies' overall competitiveness in the global market.

Autos and Auto Parts

The State of Play
China continues to be the world's only automotive market where raw statistics sound exciting. For the first five months of the year, production of passenger cars totaled 3 million units, up a monumental 46% on the same period last year. Encouragingly, sales rose by a comparable 44% representing over 97% of all cars produced. Meanwhile the government has announced new legislation requiring vehicle companies to achieve sales equal to 80% of their production capacity before building new factories. All new vehicle companies will also now be required to produce Chinese branded vehicles.

Luxury Cars and the Chinese MG
The top five selling cars in China cost an average of US$11,000, and this surely will remain the common denominator in China 's domestic market for years to come, as well as in the coming export wave of Chinese branded cars. But anyone passing the many Rolls Royce, Bentley and Ferrari dealers in China's major cities, or seeing a Maybach rolling along the highway, will know there is also a healthy demand for luxury cars as well.

The Toyota-FAW joint venture in Sichuan province has begun manufacturing its Prado Land Cruiser, which will sell in China for US$ 70,000. Meanwhile Porsche is expanding its sales network to 13 outlets, with a target of 1,350 luxury sales this year.

Nanjing Automobile Corporation, currently reassembling the production lines it shipped from MG Rover in the UK, plans to have the first Chinese made MG sports car in production by March next year. In the meantime, it has already started producing aftermarket MG parts for overseas customers.

SAIC Hires its First Senior Foreign Executive
Philip Murtaugh's recent appointment as Executive Vice-President for International Operations at Shanghai Automotive (SAIC), China 's second largest vehicle producer, is notable for any number of reasons. First, Murtaugh is the first foreign executive of a major Chinese auto manufacturer. Although the international management experience of foreign executives can add value to about any Chinese company, their presence at the top of any major Chinese company is still rare. Second, Martaugh used to be Chairman of GM China, SAIC's joint venture partner in the production of GM cars in China , until he quit that post last year citing policy differences with GM's management in Detroit . That provides an interesting dynamic just by itself.

Given his reputation as a well experienced, straight-talking executive, his appointment says as much about SAIC as it does about him. His new responsibilities are reported to involve SAIC's foreign procurement and business development. He is also expected to have a key role in sorting out SAIC's foreign acquisitions including the integration of Korea 's Sangyong Motor.

Executives like Philip Martaugh who can operate with experience on both the Chinese and Western sides will be one of the keys to success in the next phase of China 's development. We wish him good luck.

Hong Kong

Despite recent pressures on the Hang Seng and other emerging markets as the world's central banks including China 's moved in unison to increase rates and soak up excess liquidity, and Beijing 's efforts to cool down and rebalance the mainland's property market, the essentials remain sound.

We certainly do not view either the recent postponement of several scheduled non-bank IPOs in Hong Kong including Shui On Land's or the success of recent IPOs in Shanghai after an earlier ban there was recently lifted, as foreshadowing any fundamental adjustment in Hong Kong 's role.

Hong Kong will remain China 's window into the international financial markets for many years to come. Looking at it from the trade side alone, last year's trade between Hong Kong and the mainland increased 21.3% over the previous year. Hong Kong remains the mainland's fourth largest trading partner.

Vice Minister of Commerce Liao Xiaoqi's recent comments about the enduring strength and value to China of Hong Kong's services sector, and the mainland's commitment to the further development of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA), provided a timely restatement of the mainland's continuing commitment to Hong Kong.

Special Note on Chengdu

Chengdu has become another hot-spot for investment. In the last 5 years, it has achieved economic growth rates averaging over 12%. The city was an early beneficiary of the central government's "Go West" policy, a major initiative to encourage the development of second and third tier cities in the less developed inland provinces.

It has much to offer: abundant energy, modern infrastructure, a large internal market, and manufacturing wages averaging $126 a month, about half those in Guangzhou or Shanghai .

Chengdu has a highly skilled pool of labor with 24 universities and 17 colleges in the area offering relatively inexpensive education. A Motorola R&D center was lured to the city in 2001 by low costs and access to well qualified engineers. According to Chengdu 's Trade Bureau, 100 of the world's top 500 companies have so far established operations in the city.

It has already become the logistics hub of western China , and its glittering new airport is the country's fifth busiest. All glass, it looks just like the striking modern airport in Munich . High levels of investment have also attracted real estate developers eager to capitalize not only on a growing expatriate population, but also on the local Chinese, who have seen income levels steadily rising over the last several years.

Despite rapid growth, Chengdu has also avoided the speculative price hikes seen in cities along the east coast. Many, as a result, view Chengdu 's real estate market as much more stable than others the government is trying to cool down.

Speaking Engagements

David Diebold gave the keynote speech at the opening session of the Autologistica Asia conference in Shanghai on 15th May; spoke in two sessions of the US government's China: Risk, Reward and How to Win conference in Washington, D.C. on 18th May, alongside Zhou Wenzhong, China's Ambassador to the United States; and again on 24th May at the Annual Meeting of the Automotive Distribution Federation in the United Kingdom. If you would like a copy of his remarks at any of these conferences, feel free to let him know at dd@dieboldassoc.com .

DDA - Your Business Compass in China

David Diebold & Associates specializes in delivering professional services to companies and investors entering or established in China , in 3 main areas:

We Help Companies Enter the China Market
We Help Investors Find Good Investments in China
We Help Companies in China Solve Their Problems

For a more detailed description of our services, please visit our website at www.dieboldassoc.com . If you would like to talk with us about a specific matter or need, please contact us at +86 10 6597 0886 or by email at info@dieboldassoc.com .

David Diebold & Associates (H.K.) Limited
Beijing Representative Office
Suite 2902 , 29-30th Floors, Tower 4
Central Park
No. 6 Chaowai Avenue
Beijing 100020, P.R. China
Tel: +86 10 6597 0886
Fax: +86 10 6597 0622





 
财务领导力高端培训京沪启动
2007,信用是电力行业尤为突出的主题
国内首款专门规避企业老板用工风险的意外险上市
“2007中国电力企业信用论坛”——电力行业盛会
中国卓越项目经理50人评选
中国IT连锁第一强 宏图三胞挺进中关村
快捷了解媒体,企业的强烈渴望
亚太连锁投资峰会专场论坛:连锁企业家与风险投资家论道
亚太连锁投资峰会专场讨论:连锁企业的投资机会
第三届消费者最喜爱的网站TOP100评选活动全面启动
CRF中国杰出雇主TM2007-2008北京地区榜单揭晓 19家企业折桂
第九届中国人力资源公益论坛
金融市长年会要帮中国市长解难题
大赛收官阶段竞争激烈 排名迅速更迭
企业战略执行保障体系高峰论坛即将在京揭幕
“企业家投资理财”论坛即将举行
国内管理+IT咨询第一品牌AMT咨询打造“中国企业战略执行保障体系”,全国巡回研讨,即将开幕
大型活动与影响力制造高峰论坛暨最具影响力品牌活动评选正式启动
品牌中国玄奘之旅:自主品牌巡回展
1500万股市实盘大赛 8月激情上演
调查显示:61.7%的网上购物者首选网上支付
2007第三届中国电子支付高层论坛胜利召开
移动支付产业规模08年有望达到32亿
炒股大赛如火如荼 看股市高手力战牛皮行情
第三届中国电子支付高层论坛召开在即
清华金融大讲堂:中国企业家金融投资理财峰会
业务管理界限不明 电子支付乱世之争
“中国杰出企业领袖TM2007”项目在上海成功启动
第二届中国电视创新论坛6月30日在京成功举办
股市民间高手大赛百强诞生 价值投资保障稳定收益
全球企业教练齐聚北京 打造中国式企业社会责任
股市民间高手大赛遭遇6月震荡 三甲收益高达20%
HR公议论坛将于6月30日北京理工开幕
《支付清算组织管理办法》出台前的六个忠告(上)
模具行业的电子商务热潮即将来临
经历变局方显高手本色
“2007中国分类广告行业峰会”在北航隆重举行
中国股市民间高手大赛200强将诞生 榜首收益超七成
中华数据传媒网“细分行业高层沙龙TOP50”
2007全球酒店论坛新闻发布会在北京国际饭店隆重召开
第二届中小企业电子商务应用发展大会在京召开
近50%的企业将通过互联网来做生意
网盛科技在“叫板”阿里巴巴?
谁在伤害中小企业对互联网的热情?
第二届中国人力资源管理大奖(CEHRA赛拉)
B2B行业联盟不能承受之重
The Bench---全新的酒店收益管理支持工具登陆中国
行业网站:未来中小企业发展的贸易平台
2006年度中国管理软件行业评选成功落下帷幕
第二届中小企业电子商务应用发展大会3月22日召开
对外经贸大学举行第四期EMBA毕业典礼暨毕业论坛
72home数码化家居团购网商业模式纵横谈
精英汇聚评说管理软件行业
中国首家信用码征信系统管理中心在京成立
2006年中国管理软件评选进入评审阶段
第二届消费者最喜爱的网站TOP100评选榜单
“2006年度中国管理软件行业评选”的调研工作在进行中
中国B2C网站发展面临模式融合与创新
比较电子商务:互联网新一代应用搜索引擎
B2B的蛋糕还剩多少?中小企业如何分杯羹?
竞争力工程 助力中小企业蓬勃发展
数字化产品“曲线救国” 虚拟产品在B2C行业的生存法则
2006年度中国管理软件行业评选网民投票临近揭榜
中国B2C网站的未来发展在于诚信和服务
2006中国ZPARK国际融资论坛隆重召开
B2C发展攻略:传统企业在B2C领域带着优势前行
当B2C遇到C2C B2C将向B2B2C靠拢
才易天下 打造环渤海经济区人力资源服务旗舰
国营单位闯入B2B行业 为已饱满市场再添一把火
B2C行业:综合网站和专业网站形成竞争
第一届中国B2C发展大会12月8日在京召开
龙永图出席对外经贸大学国际商学院WTO论坛
2006中国管理软件评选网民投票全面展开
行业协会遭遇电子商务:一场商务的电子化大迁移
黎明前的中国B2C市场 人才是发展重大瓶颈
投票消费者最喜爱的TOP100网站 赢取千元大奖
网络购物商品正在发生巨变
B2C行业的“大块头”
在线支付仅占B2C行业交易份额15%
行业电子商务网站进入合作时代
无形数字服务 B2C行业的新起之秀
行业电子商务网站发展不可一蹴而就
B2B评选:“2006中国行业电子商务网站TOP100”评选全面启动
创业投资经典论战走进清华大学
B2B春天脚步临近 竞争好戏即将上演
第15届中外管理官产学恳谈会
B2C网站深入人心 电子商务发展的春天
2006年第二届消费者最喜爱的网站TOP100评选活动全面启动
“2006中国行业电子商务网站TOP100”评选活动全面启动
2006中国管理软件与实施商年度评选活动开幕
“找寻中小企业品牌”网络推荐活动
北京市科委召开“推进首都技术辐射,发展研发产业“研讨会”
“绿色招聘,清凉一夏”全国巡讲滨海新区站成功举行
“绿色招聘,清凉一夏”全国巡讲北京专场成功举行
2006中国人力资源日暨高峰论坛胜利举行
TMT创新模式项目秀
面对国际化 共谋珠宝业发展
“绿色招聘,清凉一夏”
品牌建设,从小做起
竞争力与竞争力获取途径
2006中国培训与发展年会10月举行
2006中国诚信万里行大型系列活动正式启动
自主创新锻铸企业国际化竞争力
2006中国创投融资发展高层论坛
雅虎组织创业风投会 打造最大网上创业平台
中小企业如何提高核心竞争力?
区域竞争,中小企业的机遇!大企业的鸡肋?
有圈子才有一切
HR也有了自己的节日
外资抢食网上电子支付
《中国中小企业竞争力工程》媒体联盟大会成立
电子支付的“舞步”
电子支付七月连环聚焦
电子支付,你敢用吗?
“隆力奇”杯第12届CCTV青年歌手电视大奖赛
电子支付市场牌照制引发传言风波
赛迪网IT博客论坛(2)
赛迪网IT博客论坛
对外经贸大学EMBA毕业典礼在人民大会堂举行
大伟迪博尔德咨询公司 “中国快照”
遥控器炒股!开辟理财操作新模式?
并购多米诺在延续
品牌经理人俱乐部成立大会成功召开
赛迪网首届IT博客论坛暨征文大赛
价值中国网支持香港科技大学创业比赛
整合网络资源 做大做强央视国际
和中国做生意——制造业国际研讨会
“全国税法知识大赛”圆满成功
“天价个人博客广告事件”访谈
<第一届中小企业电子商务应用发展大会>顺利召开
职业人士也疯狂:怒江神秘探险之旅
2006中国金融形势预测、分析与展望专家年会3月在京举行
香港科技大学高级经理人“从金融工程角度看 2006 最新财经工具和交易”论坛会召开
价值中国网总编胡泳新书出版
另类经营:不仅做杂志,也要做平台
万国商业网:打造B2B领域的GOOGLE
洪恩在线——在线教育的先行者
北京四中网校校长黄向伟的坚持、坚守、坚定
国际知名的商业预言家Mitchell Levy《把握2006年》一书出版
远程教育之北京人大附中网校专访
价值中国网祝贺搜狐网成为北京2008奥运会互联网赞助商
中国第一家信用卡门户网站“我爱卡”正式发布
  
   

京ICP备05084425号
Copyright © 2004-2006 版权所有 价值中国金融&投资博客网
本网站建议使用 IE6.0 及以上版本, 1024* 768 显示器分辨率,增强色32位