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没有金融危机 就没有资本主义

他相信通过市场进行的个人选择,相信人们必须接受自己选择的后果……与此同时,他非常清楚,有很多人需要保护,以免遭受市场经济无可否认的非故意负面因素的影响”,比如说失业,疾病导致的财务窘境,以及某些市场价格升至无法承受的水平时,无法获得生活必需品。

这是斯坦利•库鲁克斯(Stanley Crooks)在一本姗姗来迟、评价中肯的传记(乔治•曼恩出版社出版,售价25英镑)中对彼得•霍尼戈夫(Peter Thorneycroft)信仰的总结。霍尼戈夫是一位不幸被遗忘的活跃于上世纪五、六十年代的英国保守党政治人物。霍尼戈夫亲手绘制的一些素描和水彩画增加了本书的生气。

上述简单信条在霍尼戈夫出任温斯顿•丘吉尔(Winston Churchill)战后首任内阁的贸易委员会主席期间颇有裨益。
但需要补充的是,在1957年出任财政大臣期间,霍尼戈夫遭遇了英镑贬值;意见严重分歧的英国财政部无力解决危机。由此产生的混乱以及缺乏首相哈罗德•麦克米伦的支持(Harold Macmillan),最终导致了霍尼戈夫辞职。

时至今日,人们已经对所谓的“调控经济”有了更多共识,专注于央行独立、通胀目标、长期预算方针和浮动汇率等理念。

这种共识或许没有它所标榜的那样好。不过,市场经济支持者如今面临的窘境出自不同方向,即信贷和银行体系的不稳定。

比较明智的经济自由派人士多次强调,作为市场和价格满意运行必需的背景条件,货币政策和金融状况的稳定至关重要。但这一切都无济于事。金融层面的任何偏差,都必将令资本主义的反对者卷土重来。那些不久以前还承认“资本主义是城里唯一游戏”的批评人士如今都在欢呼雀跃,希望这是自己所期盼的资本主义制度的垂死挣扎。

近期事件也让很多主流经济学家颇为尴尬。他们过于轻易地就假定,央行至少能将短期利率维持在自己乐见的水平,并在他们应走的路线上进行秘密操作。

智慧之起源,就在于认识到金融盛衰从一开始就是资本主义的特色。的确,它们和人类轻信与贪婪的本性一样根深蒂固。查尔斯•金德尔伯格(Charles Kindleberger)的《癫狂、恐慌与崩溃》(Manias, Panics and Crashes)对此作了出色的记载。该书的最后一个版本在1989年出版。金德尔伯格在一份表格中列出了30多起次类事件,从1720年的南海泡沫开始,到1987年纽约证交所(New York Stock Exchange)的崩盘结束。虽然一些分析师试图找到这些事件发生的周期性,但我看到的只是无规律的周而复始,一些危机彼此之间的间隔约为10年——传统商业周期理论家最喜欢的周期,而另一些危机在上一次危机过后短短几年就接踵而至。这种频率让人不由得想借用丘吉尔的话:资本主义是个差劲的体制,但其它体制更糟。

金德尔伯格并未声称建立了关于此类危机的严格理论,但他确实发现了一种模式。大体而言,某个事件——或某些事件——会改变经济前景。人们抓住获取利润的新机会,“以一种近乎无理性的方式”过度利用,“以至于形成了一种癫狂”。过度一旦成为现实,“金融系统就会遭遇危难,在此过程中,匆忙扭转扩张进程的行动可能会变得过急,以至类似于恐慌”。在恐慌中,逆转行动的发生“伴随着价格的暴跌,涉及大宗商品、住房、建筑、土地、股票及债券——简言之,任何容易受到癫狂的事物”。

对大宗商品的提及,就当前恐慌的不同之处向我们发出了警告,也许这是不祥之兆。作者没有万能药,也没有宣称这些危机无害。但他的确相信,政策对此无能为力,并强烈支持央行作为最终贷款人的操作,如有可能,最好在国际层面上进行。他没有过多探讨监管改革:也许他怀疑那多半属于亡羊补牢之举。

最近这些事件的一个显著特点是,它们对实体经济的影响极其缓慢。尽管信贷危机早在去年8月就已为人所察觉,但迄今尚未出现主要经济领域活动的下滑——下滑与增长放缓是有区别的。这并不意味着危机即将结束,而是意味着这是一场“慢热型”的危机。而不祥的一面是我曾经提到的大宗商品价格持续上涨趋势,它很可能是西方工业国贸易条件长期恶化的组成部分,可能也是政治和经济实力转移的一部分。在这个领域,我们必须适应市场变动,而不是进行考虑欠佳的干预,企图逆转市场走向。

THE FINANCIAL CRISES OF CAPITALISM

He believed in individual choice exercised through the market place, and that people must accept the consequences of the choices they made . . . At the same time he was well aware that there were many people who needed protection from the unintended but indisputable negative aspects of a market economy” such as unemployment, financial hardship in illness, and lack of access to the essentials of life if certain market prices rose to unaffordable levels.

This was the belief of Peter Thorneycroft, an unjustly forgotten UK Conservative party politician prominent in the 1950s and 1960s, summarised by Stanley Crooks
in a belated and well merited biography (George Mann Publications, £25), enlivened by some of Thorneycroft‘s own engaging
sketches and watercolours.

The simple creed just stated served Thorneycroft well enough as president of the board of trade in Winston Churchill‘s first postwar cabinet. But it required supplementation when, as chancellor of the exchequer in 1957, he was hit by a run on the pound; a badly divided official Treasury was in no position to give it. The resulting confusion and lack of support from Harold Macmillan, the prime minister, led to his resignation.

Today there is more of a consensus on what might be called, to coin a phrase, “steering the economy”, focusing on ideas such as central bank independence, inflation targets, long-term budgetary guidelines and floating exchange rates. The consensus may not be all it is cracked up to be. But the embarrassment to supporters of a market economy now lies in a different direction, namely the instability of credit and banking.

It does not matter how many times the more sensible economic liberals have stressed the importance of stable monetary and financial conditions as part of the background conditions necessary for markets and prices to work satisfactorily. Any failures on the financial side are sure to bring the opponents of capitalism out of their burrows. Pundits who until recently conceded that “capitalism is the only game in town” are now rejoicing at what they hope is the longed-for death agony of the system.

Recent events have also caught many mainstream economists with their pants down. They have too readily assumed that central banks can make at least short-term nominal interest rates what they like and have concentrated on esoteric exercises on the path they should follow.

The beginning of wisdom is to recognise that financial booms and busts have been a feature of capitalism from the very start. Indeed they are as deep-rooted as human gullibility and greed. This is impressively documented in Charles Kindleberger‘s Manias, Panics and Crashes, the last edition of which appeared in 1989. He has a table listing more than 30 such events, starting with the South Sea bubble of 1720 and ending with the New York Stock Exchange crash of 1987. Although some analysts have tried to discern a periodicity in their occurrence, I can only see an irregular succession with some crises succeeding each other at intervals of about a decade so beloved by old-fashioned business cycle theorists, but others coming hot on the heels of their predecessors after only a couple of years. Their frequency tempts one to parody Churchill: capitalism is a bad system, but the others are worse.

Kindleberger does not claim to have a rigorous theory of such crises, but he does discern a pattern. Basically some event – or events – changes the economic outlook. New opportunities for profit are seized and overdone “in ways so closely resembling irrationality as to constitute a mania”. Once the excess is realised “the financial system experiences a sort of distress, in the course of which the rush to reverse the expansion process may become so precipitous as to resemble panic”. In a panic the reverse movement takes place “with a crash in the prices of commodities, houses, buildings, lands, stocks, bonds – in short whatever has been the subject of the mania”.

The mention of commodities alerts us to what is different about the present panic, perhaps ominously so. The author has no panacea; nor does he claim that these crises are harmless. But he does not believe that policy is impotent and he strongly supports central bank lender of last resort operations, if possible at an international level. He does not discuss regulatory reform very much: perhaps he suspects that it is mostly an attempt to bolt the stable door after all the horses have fled.

One striking feature of recent events is how slow they have been to hit the real economy. Although the credit crunch was first discerned last August no major area has yet recorded a downturn in activity, as distinct from a growth slowdown. This suggests not that the crisis is coming to an end but that it is slow-burning. The ominous feature is the one I have already hinted at in my reference to the continued trend rise in commodity prices, which could well be part of a long-term shift in the terms of trade against the industrial west, as well perhaps as part of a shift in political and economic power. Here is an area where it will be necessary to adapt to market movements rather than to attempt to reverse them by ill-considered intervention.
蔡鹏生    2008-06-06
以生态文明引领发展模式的根本变革
以生态文明引领发展模式的根本变革
马军

2007年10月31日
中国最近在"十七大"会议上提出了要建设生态文明的构想。马军说,这是对中国未来发展模式的又一次界定。那么,中国是否将从此引入绿色发展模式?"跨国资本将高污染、高能耗、高风险的生产过程转向发展中国家,在不改变发展模式的情况下"

中共十七大报告中提出要“建设生态文明”,引起广泛关注。这是在客观分析中国所面临的严峻的资源环境形势后,对中国的未来发展模式的又一次界定;同时也是在客观分析人类所面临的全球环境挑战的基础上,提出中国对未来世界文明形态的基本构想。

生态文明的提出,是基于对工业文明中不可持续的发展模式的反思。人类社会经历了漫长的原始采集、狩猎和农耕文明阶段,直到200多年前,工业革命开始席卷西方世界,工业文明迅速成为占据支配地位的文明形态。在为人类带来空前的物质财富的同时,建立在资源、能源大规模消耗基础上的工业文明发展模式,给工业国家带来了严重的环境污染和生态破坏。

在过去三十年间,伴随全球经济一体化的浪潮,工业化呈现出前所未有的迅猛发展态势。跨国资本将高污染、高能耗、高风险的生产过程转向发展中国家,在不改变发展模式的情况下,减轻了发达国家的环境压力,却大大加重了发展中国家的环境负担,环境污染问题蔓延到全球各个角落。然而,全球气候变化使得任何国家都无法独善其身,如何应对二氧化碳等污染物带来的温室效应,突然成为摆在全球各国面前的紧迫问题。

世界正把关注的目光投向中国。中国经济高速增长,但我们为此付出了极高的资源环境代价,主要原材料消耗量和污染排放量居于世界前列。从根本上看,工业文明的发展模式是不可持续的,西方发达国家的大规模生产和消费已经给全球环境带来了严重影响;而当中国、印度等发展中大国试图以同样方式发展自己,加入世界富人俱乐部的时候,工业文明固有的不可持续性就突显出来,全球环境就会加速逼近危机爆发的临界点。在这样的背景下,中国领导层提出建设生态文明,对保障中国的长远发展和维持全球生态安全都有着深远的意义。

作为一种新的文明形态,生态文明尚无范例可循,从理论到实践都需要作艰难探索。生态文明与工业文明,首先分野在对人与自然关系的认识。工业文明立足于对自然的征服和改造,而生态文明则要求人类寻求与生态环境的和谐,因为生态化环境是人类生存和发展的基础。早在上世纪30年代,环境学者利奥波德就曾指出:“文明并不像通常设想的那样,是去征服一个稳定而永恒的地球”。在人类遍布地球各个可居住角落的时候,在人类握有摧毁生态平衡、破坏生态系统力量的今天,我们反而必须收起心中那柄征服的巨斧,重新找回我们对自然曾经拥有的那份尊重和感恩。

建设生态文明,不同于传统意义上的污染控制和生态恢复,而是设想超越工业文明建立在资源扩张型的发展模式,探索出环境友好型的发展道路。应该清醒地认识到,由于中国巨大的人口基数和经济规模,即使我们采用各种末端治理措施,仍然不能避免严重的环境影响。要真正实现与自然和谐的生产生活,需要大规模开发和使用清洁的可再生的能源,实现对自然资源的高效、循环利用。这样的根本转变不是一个国家可以完成的,需要中国应该和其它致力于维护全球生态安全的国家协同努力。

建设生态文明,并不意味着我们要抛弃业已形成的环境管理体系和环保技术。事实上,许多处在后工业化时代的国家和地区,已经对可持续发展模式作了有益的探索,一些行之有效的环境管理方式和资源利用模式符合生态文明建设的方向。对于尚处于工业化时期的中国,挑战是巨大的;但作为后发国家,如果我们能积极借鉴和吸收他国的有益经验,也存在着超越既有基础设施,直接采用新型技术设施的机遇。

要实现经济增长方式的彻底转变,除了要摆正人与自然关系外,还必须真正贯彻以人为本的原则。应该认识到,生态文明虽然着重强调了保护生态、顺应自然规律,但自然万物本身不能参与到环境管理中,它们需要致力于守护自然的人们为其代言。国际社会提出可持续发展,是要力求实现“既能满足当代人需要又不对后代人满足其需要的能力构成危害的发展”;而中国领导层提出的科学发展观,同样将“以人为本”确定为核心。如果我们发展的目的真正是为了惠及民众,那么我们就不能在发展中破坏民众赖以生存的资源环境;而在环境决策和管理中赋予公民知情权、参与权和司法救济权,是保障公民环境权的最有效方式。

人们曾经对后工业化时代的发展方向莫衷一是,如今寻求与环境友好的发展模式已经成为一个重要的全球主题。提出建设生态文明,既是中国对未来世界发展方向的构想,也再一次体现了中国作为一个负责任的大国,对解决环境问题的高度重视和坚定决心。


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背景资料:

2007年7月15日,中共总书记胡锦涛在代表十六届中央委员会向十七大作报告时,提出了实现全面建设小康社会奋斗目标的新要求,其中,要“建设生态文明,基本形成节约能源资源和保护生态环境的产业结构、增长方式、消费模式”。

胡锦涛要求,循环经济形成较大规模,可再生能源比重显著上升。主要污染物排放得到有效控制,生态环境质量明显改善。生态文明观念在全社会牢固树立。

这被认为有利于着力解决中国发展新阶段面临的一些突出问题。国家环保总局不久前发布的一份报告称,中国的总体环境形势仍然“相当严峻”,频发的污染事件影响着人民的生活。

官方数据显示,2006年中国化学需氧量排放总量居世界第一,远远超过环境容量,全国七大水系监测断面中62%受到污染,流经城市的河段90%受到污染。今年5月份在华东发生的太湖蓝藻事件也引起了震动。由于片面追求经济发展,当地大规模发展化工业和轻工业,造成湖水污染,使200万人的生活用水中断。




马军,中国公众与环境研究中心主任。

Ecological civilisation is the way forward for development
Ecological civilisation is the way forward for development
Ma Jun

October 31, 2007
China’s recent Party Congress unveiled a new determination to redefine the country’s model of economic growth, writes Ma Jun. Can a greener form of development now emerge from China?"Global capitalism has transferred the most polluting, resource-intensive and high-risk manufacturing industries to developing countries."

The political report emerging from China’s recent Party Congress said that the country needs to “build an ecological civilisation”. It’s a remark that has attracted widespread attention. It represents an attempt by China’s leaders to redefine the model of growth that China should follow, taking into account an objective analysis of severe problems the country faces in terms of resources. It also represents the state of Chinese thinking on the future of global civilisation in the light of the world’s shared environmental challenges.

The idea of “ecological civilisation” is based on a reconsideration of the unsustainable model of development that has arisen out of industrial civilisation. In its history, the human race moved from hunter-gatherer societies to agricultural societies. Then the industrial revolution enveloped the west around 200 years ago. Since then, industrialisation became our main marker of civilisation. While it created unprecedented levels of material wealth, the industrial model of development, based on high levels of resources and energy consumption, also brought serious pollution and ecological destruction to the industrialised world.

Over the past 30 years, riding on the wave of globalisation, industrialisation has brought unprecedented levels of rapid economic development to the world. Global capitalism has transferred the most polluting, resource-intensive and high-risk manufacturing industries to developing countries. This has allowed developed countries to alleviate the pressure on their own environments, without making any changes to their model of growth. The environmental burden on developing countries has increased, and pollution has now reached every corner of the globe. But global climate change means that no country can isolate itself from the effects of pollution generated abroad. Every country is now faced with the urgent question of how to reduce emissions – and keep global warming in check.

Attention has now focused on China. The country’s economy has grown rapidly, but we are paying a high price in terms of our resources and environment. China currently leads the world in terms of resources consumption and pollution emissions. Ultimately, our model of industrial civilisation is unsustainable. Large-scale production and consumption by western nations has wreaked havoc on the global environment. As countries like India and China attempt to join the club of rich nations, the problems are becoming more acute. The global environment is heading quicker than ever towards crisis point. And it is with this background that China’s leadership put forward its “ecological civilisation” plan. It has profound implications not only for China’s hopes of maintaining long-term growth, but also for attempts to guarantee the security of the global environment.

Ecological civilisation is a new idea, and as such, there are no models for us to follow; putting the theory into practice will be a tough task. Ecological civilisation differs from industrial civilisation in the way it views humans’ relationship with nature. Industrial civilisation requires that nature is conquered and moulded to our needs. Ecological civilisation, however, requires that humans live in harmony with our environment, because the environment is the foundation of our very existence. As early as the 1930s, the ecologist Aldo Leopold wrote, “Civilisation is not…the enslavement of a stable and constant Earth.” Humans have spread out to inhabit every habitable corner of the Earth, and have acquired the power to destroy the ecological balance. Now we have to put down our tools and try to recover our lost sense of respect and gratitude for nature.

Ecological civilisation is not the same as pollution control or environmental recovery. It transcends traditional ideas that stem from our current model of development, based on the constant expansion of resources. It is important to recognise that, given the size of China’s population and the scale of its economy, even by taking the most extreme clean-up measures, our effects on the environment will still be severe. In order to find a way forward that is truly in harmony with nature, we need to develop clean, renewable energy on a large scale and make efficient use of resources, which should then be recycled. This fundamental change cannot be achieved by any single country, but only through the concerted efforts of China and other countries who together aim to safeguard global ecological security.

However, building an ecological civilisation does not mean entirely abandoning existing environment management systems and techniques. Many post-industrial countries are still seeking a new model of sustainable growth. Effective environmental and resources management approaches have come out of their experience, and will help in building an ecological civilisation. The challenge for a China, which is still stuck in the industrial age, is immense. But as a developing country, China can learn a lot from the experience of other countries. New technology can be used to replace existing infrastructures.


We should recognize that ecological civilisation focuses on conserving and respecting nature, but that nature cannot participate in efforts
to protect the environment. It is humans who need to act as guardians of nature.

The idea of sustainable development, according to the 1987 Brundtland commission, is “development that meets that needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” Similarly, the “scientific concept of development”, advanced by China’s leaders, centres on the principle of “putting people first”. If the aim of development is really to benefit the people, we cannot destroy the very resources on which people rely for survival. The best way to ensure the public protect the environment is to implement policies that grant people the right to information and to participate in environmental affairs, and give them access to legal aid.

There are a wide variety of opinions on how to develop in the post-industrial era. The quest for an environmentally friendly model of growth has now become an important global undertaking. Ecological civilisation, China’s view of future economic development, shows that China is acting responsibly, and taking environmental issues very seriously indeed.


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Background: the Congress report

In the16th Central Committee of the Communist Party’s report to the 17th Party Congress, general secretary Hu Jintao unveiled new requirements for establishing a well-off society. One was to “build an ecological civilisation and a model of growth and consumption, as well as industries, which are frugal in their use of energy and resources and protect the environment.”

Hu said the circular economy should be expanded, and there should be a focus on renewable energy. He added that if pollution emissions could be controlled effectively, the environment could be improved substantially, and that the idea of ecological civilisation should be firmly established throughout the whole of society.

A recent report by China’s State Environmental Protection Administration said that the country’s state of environmental affairs was “critical”, and frequent environmental accidents are negatively affecting the lives of many.

According to official figures, China’s chemical oxygen demand is the highest in the world, and far exceeds the country’s environmental capacity. Tests of China’s waterways show that 62% were polluted, with 90% of rivers near cities contaminated. In May, The algae-bloom incident in Taihu Lake caused widespread alarm. The area, in eastern China, had developed chemical, heavy and light industry to boost local economic growth, causing such severe pollution that the water supply to 2 million people had to be cut.



Ma Jun is the director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs

Homepage photo by V 2


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蔡鹏生    2007-11-13
梅塞尔切割焊接(中国)有限公司,是德国独资企业,1995年8月1日成立,总投资6560万元。生产高技术的数控等离子及火焰切割机,产品50%以上出口。公司以高新技术,优质产品为国内、外客户提供最佳服务。公司被评为“全国双优外商投资企业”、“省高新技术企业”和“省先进技术企业”。   地址:江苏省昆山市南浜路528号